RELATED: Heat-related deaths hit historic high in 2021. The 1981-2010 climate normal period was used from the late 2011 to early 2021. A record warm low temperature was set on the 22nd with a low of 66 breaking the record of 64 from 2016. The seasonal average temperature of 55.3 goes into the record books as the 13th warmest on record, tied with Winter 1942-1943 & last winter. On the precipitation side, the forecast leaned toward below normal at a 45% chance. Combined with last years August average temperature being 1.2 below normal, this is the first back-to-back Augusts since 2005-06 to be below normal. Coming off one of the WETTEST years on record in 2021 where the airport recorded 15.19", the outlook called for enhanced probabilities for below normal rainfall through the Spring season then equal chances for below, near or above normal rainfall for the remainder of the year. For comparison through the end of March, the current climate normal period (1991-2020) average temperature is 57.4 while the previous climate normal period (1981-2010) average temperature was 56.1. including sunrise/sunset and moon phases. The best chance of a colder-than-average January will be in northern Minnesota. Our forecasts are not direct predictions of rain/snow. The most frigid weather will likely arrive in late January, and it could be rather brutal. . The Climate Prediction Center forecasts for temperature a 44% chance that they will end up above normal and a 23% chance that they will end up below normal. The 2021-22 water year ended up on the dry side with 6.97" being reported at the airport. The exception is the summer thunderstorm season where the forecast for precipitation is a 36% chance that they will be above normal and a 31% chance that they will end up below normal. The bottom line, according to Crawford, is this eruption isn't expected to be a significant influence on this winter's weather. PHOENIX (3TV/CBS 5) Look for one last, mostly sunny day before an unsettled weather pattern arrives for the next few days in Arizona.Light winds and high clouds can be expected this morning . This is the 7th June on record in which the monthly low temperature did not fall below 65. The last day of 2022 was dry with afternoon temperatures in the upper 60's to lower 70's. . The Farmers' Almanac is out with their Extended Winter Outlook for 2021-2022 and is calling for a "Frosty Flip-Flop Winter". This ranks as the 5th warmest monsoon on record, tied with 2011. Rainfall occurred across the metro area over three time periods during the month. Tracking NFL Coaches Fired After 2022 Season Kliff Kingsbury and Lovie Smith are the latest NFL head coaches to be fired By Max Molski Published January 9, 2023 Updated on January 9, 2023 . Support local journalism. One of the strongest thunderstorms of the month hit the airport on the evening of the 23rd with a wind gust of 76 mph. Since we never quite know what to expect, this upcoming season couldn't possibly catch us off-guard right? Long-Range Weather Forecast 2023 for Places in Arizona Ajo, AZ Apache Junction, AZ Arizona City, AZ Avondale, AZ Avra Valley, AZ Benson, AZ Big Park, AZ Bisbee, AZ Buckeye, AZ Bullhead City, AZ Camp Verde, AZ Casa Grande, AZ Casas Adobes, AZ Catalina, AZ Catalina Foothills, AZ Cave Creek, Maricopa County, AZ Chandler, AZ Chinle, AZ Chino Valley, AZ Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 77 on the 7th to a low of 31 on the 2nd. What are some fun things to do in the winter in Arizona? No matter which part of Arizona youre from (or plan to visit), winter is a great time to arrive. No matter how you like your winter, youre sure to find it in Arizona. This is the most of any calendar month thus far in the 21st century. Amounts ranged from 3" to 8" with localized higher amounts up to 12". video. Dallas Area Storms Cause Power Transformer To Explode, Cold Or Flu? A high minimum temperature of 59 on the 4th broke the old warm low for the date of 56 from 1946. Even as we swelter through the last stretch of summer's "dog days," the upcoming winter outlooks for the 2022-2023 season from the Farmers' Almanac and The Old Farmer's Almanac are enough to send shivers down one's spine. HOT TOPIC: 2021-2022 Seasonal Weather Forecast Released For Southwestern United States; Detailed Maps and Discussion Within, November 29, 2021 The Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), a well-established and innovative inter- and transdisciplinary climate research team, is looking for a Program Manager to join our team. 3rd Coldest January- February on Record in 2021. Click Here To Join The Season Tier, Join The Main Arizona Weather Force Facebook Group (50 percent delivery time) You can join the main AZWF page as well through that group. When Does It End? The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded a trace of rain which is well below normal and ranks as the 16th driest November on record. Expect a few rainy days but usually not more than 3. The 2022-2023 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A first look at Winter 2022/2023 forecast shows an obvious influence of the third-year La Nina phase. The average Summer temperature of 88.3 is 1.2 above normal and is well shy of the two warmest Summers on record (90.0 in 2020 & 89.9 in 1994). Local News Sports Politics Opinion For Subscribers . There were nine daily lows that were 80 or warmer. Meanwhile, the Southwest and much of the Rockies are most likely to see December end up warmer than usual. CPC forecasts, thanks to weakening La Nia conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, probabilities leaning for below normal rainfall through the Spring season then equal chances for below, near or above normal rainfall for most the remainder of the year. The last year in which Tucson waited until April to set/tied a record temperature was back in 2010. February 08, 2021 : Atmospheric conditions and temperature F: RealFeel F: Atmospheric (100 percent delivery time) Rainfall amounts were mostly between 0.25" and 0.75". With record to near-record heat blistering Colorado on Monday, you might think the smoke in the air is from a Colorado wildfire. A couple of weak weather systems moved across the area on the 28th through 30th bringing the area another shot of valley rain and mountain snow. Feb March 2023 . It will modify the jet stream pattern over North America and the Pacific Ocean, extending its reach to the rest of the world. How to get these alerts with a premium subscription via e-mail by micro-climate zone AND/OR Get the GPS models for all events on your device enabled? If you click here, this is exactly what my model showed, which is telling me further that we remain on track to keep getting the long range right. Our Office; Monsoon; Monsoon Safety; SE Arizona drought page; . While anything is possible, it appears a season full of mellow days and drier air is ahead, so get your sweaters. If you hear rain or anything is coming to the area. Rainfall amounts, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, has varied widely across the metro area. The annual monsoon was not quite as active as it was in 2021 with rainfall amounts ranging widely across the metro area from 3" to 8" with localized higher amounts up to 12". The forecast for precipitation is a 36% chance that they will be above normal and a 31% chance that they will end up below normal. The coldest periods will be in late November, mid- and late December, and mid-January. "The eruption of Tonga back in January will likely not cool the climate, given it was an underwater volcano that ejected water vapor, rather than particulates, into the stratosphere; on the contrary, given water vapor is a greenhouse gas, it may have a warming impact on the climate over the next few years," Crawford explained. Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 79 on the 27th to a low of 30 on the 15th & 17th. The temperatures in Arizona in January are quite cold with temperatures between 9C and 19C, warm clothes are a must. According to the Farmers' Almanac (in publication since 1818), states in . So, what about this month? Drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and much of . Rainfall at the Tucson International airport, the official location in Tucson, of two-thirds of an inch (0.67") is two inches below normal and ranks as the 9th driest January through May period on record. Add the current city. The zero rainfall recorded at the International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, marked the 30th time since 1895 that no measurable rain was recorded at the official site. The first five months were rather dry with the airport only recording 0.67" or 2" below normal. The high temperature of 82 on the 20th marked the first August since 2007 that recorded back-to-back days with highs in the 80's. The possibilities are all there you just need to discover them. In the U.S., La Nia typically means a colder than average winter in northern and western parts of the country, and a warmer South and East. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts for temperature a 36% chance that they will end up above normal and a 31% chance that they will end up below normal. (Weather station: Payson, USA). Ninety-nine percent of the state is experiencing some level of drought with more than half of the state experiencing an Exceptional drought, which is the worst level. The monthly average temperature of 54.3 is almost two degrees below normal and ranks as the 59th warmest February on record. Our outlook has the highest confidence of a cold February in the Northern Plains and upper Midwest. 2023 www.azcentral.com. Keep in mind this outlook is an overall three-month trend. Weather; Archive; Weather Widget F. Winter is a great time to hike the Grand Canyon (just be careful of ice), and its also a fun time to go camping in the milder central and southern parts of the state. So what's in store? Precipitation across the metro area, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, ranged from 1.75" to 4.00" with the highest totals occurring north of Tangerine Road extending east from Dove Mountain in Marana to the northern part of Oro Valley. Nine Ways To Tell The Difference. While the Southwest will likely escape the brunt of the onslaught of winter, we certainly aren't in the clear either. That contrasts sharply with a likely warmer-than-usual February along the northern Gulf Coast, including Florida. How do you feel about the upcoming milder, drier (especially drier than this last monsoon season, hoo boy) winter we might have? Desert biome, Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument. There were six days of triple digit high temperatures which is slightly above normal. This led to isolated areas of heavy rain and flash flooding along with hail. Click on the image to the right to see how 2022 compared to the historical record. Check out the full 2022-23 Extended Winter Weather Forecast from The Farmer's Almanac below. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded just over a half an inch /0.53"/. According to its forecast map, Arizona's fall theme will be cool with "decent precipitation." Peter Geiger, the editor of the Farmers' Almanac, said there wasn't much particularly interesting. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts for temperature a 35% chance that they will end up above normal and a 32% chance that they will end up below normal. You also get the member section, which has controllable models like rain, wind, snow, in high resolution along with a GPS feature which is updated when an event is in the area Equal chances use the map provided below. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Rainfall amounts across the metro area, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, ranged widely from 0.10" to 0.75 ". La Nia conditions can have varying effects on weather patterns around the world. The average Fall temperature of 71.3 is 1.0 below the 1991-2020 normal.